Iceland vs Wales: UEFA Nations League 2024 Round 3 Analysis
As the UEFA Nations League 2024 returns for Round 3, Iceland and Wales will face each other in a crucial League B fixture on October 11, 2024. Both teams have had contrasting results in their recent encounters, setting the stage for a fascinating battle.
This match will be played at Laugardalsvöllur in Reykjavík, where Iceland hopes to capitalise on home advantage as they aim to bounce back from a turbulent campaign so far.
In this article, we analyze the two teams based on their last 10 games, focusing on the positives and negatives each side brings into the clash, and offer predictions for the outcome.
As a reminder, all predictions are subjective, and the final outcome is never guaranteed. Betting responsibly is important—always wager only what you can afford to lose.
Iceland’s Recent Form and Analysis
Iceland comes into this UEFA Nations League (UNL) fixture with a mixed bag of results. Their last 10 matches reflect a team still finding consistency, especially in competitive tournaments like the Nations League. Here’s a breakdown of their last 10 games:
Last 10 Matches
1. Loss to Turkey (1-3) – UNL
2. Win against Montenegro (2-0) – UNL
3. Loss to Netherlands (0-4) – Friendly
4. Win over England (1-0) – Friendly
5. Loss to Ukraine (1-2) – Euro Qualifier
6. Win against Israel (4-1) – Euro Qualifier
7. Win over Honduras (2-0) – Friendly
8. Win against Guatemala (1-0) – Friendly
9. Loss to Portugal (0-2) – Euro Qualifier
10 Loss to Slovakia (2-4) – Euro Qualifier
Positive Aspects of Iceland’s Play
1. Home Strength: Iceland has proven themselves a formidable opponent at home, especially in their recent outings. Out of their last four home matches, they’ve secured three victories, all of which came with clean sheets. This impressive home record will boost their confidence going into the clash against Wales.
2. Improved Offense: The 2-0 win over Montenegro in their last UEFA Nations League fixture showcased Iceland’s ability to break down defenses. Jóhann Berg Guðmundsson has been pivotal to this success, contributing assists and helping the team create opportunities. Additionally, Iceland has managed to score at least two goals in four of their last 10 matches, showing they can find the back of the net.
3. Defensive Solidity at Home: Iceland has kept clean sheets in three of their last four home games, which suggests they are capable of organizing themselves well on familiar turf. This defensive strength could frustrate the Welsh attack, especially given Wales’ inconsistent away form.
Negative Aspects of Iceland’s Play
1. Inconsistent Results: Iceland has struggled to string together consecutive wins. Their tendency to alternate between wins and losses reflects inconsistency, which could hinder their chances of building momentum in the UEFA Nations League. Out of their last six matches, they’ve alternated between wins and defeats.
2. Vulnerability to Stronger Opposition: Iceland has faced heavy defeats when up against top-tier European teams, as seen in their 4-0 losses to both the Netherlands and Slovakia. Their defensive frailties against stronger opposition could be a cause for concern, especially if Wales brings their A-game.
3. Lack of Depth: Iceland’s squad has often been overly reliant on a few key players like Guðmundsson. If he or other core players underperform, Iceland’s offensive structure might falter, leading to problems in creating chances.
Wales’ Recent Form and Analysis
Wales enters this fixture with renewed confidence after a decent run in the UEFA Nations League. Under the new management of Craig Bellamy, Wales has shown glimpses of a promising future, though their form has been inconsistent. Here’s a look at their last 10 games:
Last 10 Matches
1. Win against Montenegro (2-1) – UNL
2. Draw with Turkey (0-0) – UNL
3. Loss to Slovakia (0-4) – Friendly
4. Draw with Gibraltar (0-0) – Friendly
5. Loss to Poland (0-1) – Euro Qualifier
6. Win over Finland (4-1) – Euro Qualifier
7. Draw with Turkey (1-1) – Euro Qualifier
8. Draw with Armenia (1-1) – Euro Qualifier
9. Win against Croatia (2-1) – Euro Qualifier
10. Win over Gibraltar (4-0) – Friendly
Positive Aspects of Wales’ Play
1. Strong Start Under New Management: Wales has looked promising under the stewardship of Craig Bellamy, especially with their 2-1 win over Montenegro. The team has shown a willingness to press early, as seen in their quick two-goal lead against Montenegro within the first three minutes of play.
2. Defensive Discipline: Wales has conceded fewer goals in their recent UEFA Nations League outings, with a notable clean sheet against Turkey. Their backline, when disciplined, can neutralize opposition attacks, which could come in handy against Iceland’s home advantage.
3. Resilience in Key Matches: Wales has shown that they can rise to the occasion in high-stakes games. Their win over Croatia and draw against Turkey highlight their ability to compete against teams with significant footballing pedigree. This resilience will be crucial as they face Iceland away from home.
Negative Aspects of Wales’ Play
1. Inconsistent Away Form: Wales has won just two of their last 10 away matches, a worrying sign for a team traveling to face Iceland. The inconsistency on the road may haunt them, especially given Iceland’s home strength. Defensive lapses have also led to some disappointing away results, like their heavy defeat to Slovakia.
2. Key Absences: The absence of Ethan Ampadu due to injury is a significant blow. Although Wales has a replacement in Joe Allen, Ampadu’s presence in midfield has been vital to their recent successes. This could disrupt the balance of the squad and affect their performance, particularly in maintaining possession.
3. Goal-Scoring Troubles: Wales has struggled to score consistently in several matches, evidenced by their goalless draw against Gibraltar and narrow loss to Poland. Brennan Johnson’s individual form for his club, Tottenham, has been outstanding, but his ability to replicate that in a Wales jersey remains uncertain. Only scoring once for Wales in 17 appearances raises concerns about their attacking threat.
Head-to-Head Record
Historically, Wales has dominated the head-to-head encounters between these two teams. Of their six previous matches, Wales has won five, while Iceland has managed just one victory. Their last competitive meeting dates back to 1984, and while much has changed since then, this historical record may play on the minds of both sets of players.
Prediction and Possible Outcome
Given Iceland’s strong home form and Wales’ struggles away from home, this game could be a close contest. Iceland’s ability to defend well on home turf combined with Wales’ inconsistent performances away suggests that the match might not be high-scoring. However, Wales’ resilience under Craig Bellamy and the attacking prowess of players like Brennan Johnson could give them the edge.
Prediction: Iceland 1-1 Wales
Both teams are likely to play cautiously, with Iceland trying to build from their clean sheet successes at home and Wales looking to avoid defeat on the road. A draw seems like a likely result, although Iceland may have a slight edge due to their home advantage.
Disclaimer
This analysis is a prediction and should be treated as such. Football is unpredictable, and we cannot guarantee the outcome of the match. We encourage everyone to bet responsibly and only wager amounts you can afford to lose.
