EUROPE: UEFA Nations League – League A – Round 3
Serbia vs Switzerland
12.10.2024
Venue: Stadion Dubočica, Leskovac
Referee: Sozza S. (Ita)
As Serbia prepares to face Switzerland in the third round of the UEFA Nations League – League A, both teams are looking to solidify their standings and improve on recent performances.
This clash brings two sides that have had contrasting starts to the competition, with Serbia holding a slight edge in momentum due to their home advantage, while Switzerland is still searching for their first victory in this campaign. The match promises to be a thrilling encounter, as both teams aim to avoid being bottom of the group.
Serbia’s Recent Form and Strengths
Currently ranked 35th in the FIFA rankings, Serbia’s journey through the Nations League has been one of steady progress. Starting in League C in 2018/19, they’ve now risen to League A, competing among Europe’s elite.
Despite a strong 0-0 draw against Spain in the opening match of this cycle, Serbia followed up with a 2-0 defeat to Denmark, adding pressure to their upcoming fixture against Switzerland.
Looking at their last ten matches, Serbia has shown mixed results, with three wins, three draws, and four losses. In recent games, they have struggled with consistency, especially in key matchups. Their last outing saw them fall to Denmark in a game where they failed to break through a well-organized defense.
However, Serbia’s strength lies in their ability to defend well at home, with the team going unbeaten in seven of their last eight home games (W5, D2). This record will give them confidence heading into this crucial fixture.
Serbia’s head coach Dragan Stojković has chosen a youthful squad for this campaign, opting to leave out experienced players like Dušan Vlahović and Sergej Milinković-Savić, signaling a focus on the future.
However, this decision could be seen as risky given the importance of this match. The team’s reliance on Aleksandar Mitrović for goals will be a focal point, as the striker has been in fine form for his club, Al Hilal, with two goals and two assists in his last two appearances.
Mitrović also has a history of delivering in this fixture, having scored the opener in both previous head-to-head encounters against Switzerland.
Positives for Serbia:
1. Home advantage: Serbia has a strong record at home, losing only twice in their last eight Nations League matches as hosts.
2. Defensive solidity: A 0-0 draw against Spain showcased Serbia’s ability to frustrate top teams with a disciplined defense.
– Mitrović’s form: With Mitrović in good form, Serbia has a reliable attacking outlet, especially in high-stakes games.
Negatives for Serbia:
1. Inconsistent form: Serbia’s recent results show a lack of consistency, particularly in big matches.
2. Inexperienced squad: The omission of key players could backfire if the younger squad struggles under pressure.
3. Struggling in crucial games: The 2-0 loss to Denmark highlighted Serbia’s issues in breaking down well-organized defenses.
Switzerland’s Recent Form and Strengths
Switzerland, ranked 15th in the FIFA rankings, finds themselves in a precarious position heading into this match. After two losses in the group stage, first to Denmark (2-0) and then to Spain (4-1), Switzerland will be desperate to turn their fortunes around. Despite their poor form in this competition, the Swiss are capable of rising to the occasion, as they demonstrated with a strong performance in the Euro 2024, reaching the quarter-finals.
Switzerland’s recent form has been disappointing, with only one win in their last eight Nations League away games (D1, L6). Additionally, they have struggled to score on the road, managing just one goal in their last four away games (W1, D1, L2). This lack of firepower could be a significant concern as they travel to Serbia, where the home side’s defensive record will pose a challenge.
Switzerland’s historical head-to-head advantage over Serbia provides a glimmer of hope, as they have won both of their previous meetings, in the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, with narrow 2-1 victories. Granit Xhaka, one of Switzerland’s key players, scored in their 2018 meeting and could be pivotal once again. Although Xhaka has been more of a provider recently, with three assists in his last six club appearances, his leadership and experience will be crucial for a Swiss team that has looked vulnerable in defense and inconsistent in attack.
Positives for Switzerland:
1. Historical dominance: Switzerland has beaten Serbia in both of their previous meetings, which could provide a psychological boost.
2. Granit Xhaka’s influence: Xhaka’s experience and ability to dictate play from midfield will be key in breaking down Serbia’s defense.
3. Euro 2024 quarter-finalists: Switzerland’s recent success in the Euros shows they can perform on the big stage when necessary.
Negatives for Switzerland:
- Defensive struggles: Switzerland has conceded six goals in their first two group games, highlighting weaknesses at the back.
- Lack of goals: Scoring just once in their last four away matches points to a lack of cutting edge up front, a problem exacerbated by their tendency to finish games with fewer players due to disciplinary issues.
- Poor away form: Switzerland has won only one of their last eight Nations League away games, indicating a struggle to perform on the road.
Head-to-Head and Prediction
The head-to-head record between these two sides favors Switzerland, who have won both previous encounters by narrow 2-1 margins.
However, both matches came during the World Cup group stages, and this UEFA Nations League encounter will bring a different dynamic. Switzerland’s form in the current competition has been poor, while Serbia’s home advantage could be a deciding factor.
Based on recent performances and considering the strength of both squads, this match is likely to be a closely contested affair. Serbia’s strong home form, combined with Switzerland’s away struggles, suggests that the home side could edge this contest.
However, Switzerland’s experience and past victories over Serbia cannot be discounted, making a draw a plausible outcome.
Prediction: Serbia 1-1 Switzerland
In a match where both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, a draw seems like the most probable outcome. Serbia’s defensive discipline at home and Switzerland’s need to avoid defeat should result in a cagey affair, with neither side willing to take too many risks.
Disclaimer
This analysis and prediction are based on recent form, team strengths, and historical data. The actual outcome of the match may vary, and we cannot determine the final result. Please bet responsibly and only wager amounts that you can afford to lose.
